The Opening Ceremonies
Welcome to The One Time Shot for Thursday, October 26. We’ve got an eleven game slate ahead of us with no teams on the second leg of a back to back. That means we are going to have to put in a little bit of effort to find that value today as every team is fresh, there will be a plethora of top goalies in net, and there will be no easy teams to pick on. I love the challenge. Best of luck tonight. #Vegasstrong, go Knights (I know they’re not on the slate tonight but I’ve got to show love to my home team)!
I’ll be on Twitter (@bankster17) all the time to answer any questions you may have and to give my thoughts on that night’s slate even if I’m not writing an article.
The Starting Lineup –Stacks I’ll be focusing on
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Winnipeg Jets (Connor Hellebuyck – expected goalie)
The Winnipeg Jets are really bad at killing off penalties. I love targeting teams that are bad when facing a man disadvantage. Pittsburgh is going to be one of the chalkier teams on this slate but with this game projected to be the highest scoring on the night, I think there’s a path we can take to help offset some of the potential Penguins ownership. The key here is avoiding big name players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang. Instead, let’s focus on the second power play line (to keep that advantage of playing against a bad PK team) and Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, and Olli Matta. That trio has combined for 23 points in the Penguins ten games this year (with an average of 6.6 SOG/game, as well). That’s not Crosby numbers but you’re also not paying Crosby prices for these guys. I love when I can get a sleeper line on a chalky team and save some cap space. The PIT PP2 is not my top team tonight in terms of highest potential output, but they may be my top value line of the night given their relatively inexpensive prices.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings (Jimmy Howard – expected goalie)
I know, I know, the Lightning are really chalky so why are we putting them on here. Much like with the Penguins, I think we have a chance to get around some of that chalkiness by getting creative with our stack. Obviously I want to make sure to get exposure to Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov but we should stack them with Mikhail Sergachev. Yes, Sergachev has been white hot (7 points and 13 SABS over his last four games…as a defenseman!) but people don’t tend to use a defender as part of their main stack. They look to a top line and roll out the forwards. By foregoing that strategy we have a chance to use three chalky players in a non-chalky combination. At the end of the day we find that this was a widely owned stack, but they still do well, we aren’t going to be upset. Sometimes the chalk is the chalk for a reason. With some pretty big stack available today (PIT, WPG, NYR, DAL, WSH, etc), nobody should be so widely owned that it’s going to ruin your GPP. I say we go for it with Tampa Bay and build around that.
Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars (Ben Bishop – expected goalie)
In a little bit you’re going to read about a team that’s struggling in a very similar way to the Oilers (Montreal). In that section I’m going to argue that we need to use a goalie against that team. Here I’m going to tell you that the Oilers are going to be a team worth looking at tonight. For the season Edmonton has been struggling big time (bigly?). The Oilers are second in the league in shots taken per game (37.8 SOG/game), yet are second to last in shooting percentage (5%) and last in goals per game (1.88 goals/game). This team is far too talented to stay this bad for much longer. Going up against a rock solid goalie like Ben Bishop is only going to pull people further away from the Edmonton, thus making them a great GPP option. Love the idea of finding a way to squeeze in a TB/EDM stack (although it’ll be very hard). Connor McDavid has been outstanding (9 points and 34 SOG in eight games) but the rest of this team is reeling. Perhaps the return of Leon Draisaitl will spark this team a little bit. He didn’t do much on Tuesday but perhaps tonight he will get his full complement of minutes and shots. McDavid and Draisaitl skate on the same power play line and I’m going to reserve my right to hold off on the third member of this stack until I see how the lines are configured at morning skate. Patrick Maroon is the player I’d like to focus on since he’s been half decent this year and skate alongside McDavid at even strength, but if you find that you need to save a few bucks then I suppose you can live with Milan Lucic or Mark Letestu (although neither is ideal).
3 Stars of the Night – HuLo players (High upside, Low ownership) that I’d use as a one-off play outside of a stack
Brayden Point (TB): Between Sergachev and Point, we sure have a good way to avoid TB ownership while still using the team in a stack. Point has been outstanding this year with 11 points in 10 games. That’s a pretty unsustainable level of performance for a guy averaging 1.7 SOG/game but this matchup is very nice and you can’t deny the way that TB is playing right now. He’s worth a shot as a one-off play or part of a HuLo TB mini-stack.
Dustin Brown (LAK): I sure see a lot of people talking about Brown but I’m not sure that the ownership has caught up to the hype. He’s been great this year with 11 points in nine games on an average of about 4 SOG per game. I love the volume of shots because those do add up, and if you take enough then one of the times the puck is going to hit the back of the net (the Evander Kane Corollary). Even with zero points over his last two games, Brown has accumulated 7 SABS so he’s not totally skunking. I love a player who can get you those hidden points.
Clayton Keller (ARI): I don’t care that the Coyotes are winless. Keller has been a revelation with 10 points in 9 games on nearly 4 SOG per game. Let the Rangers win this game 4-1 as long as that one goal came off the stick of Keller. I don’t think the Rangers will only give up one goal as Ondrej Pavelec is in net and he’s been brutal (6 goals allowed on only 43 SOG this year). If I’m looking to spend down a bit on one of my wingers, then Keller will be one of the first names I look at.
The Blue Line –Defensemen to target
Brady Skjei (NYR): Skjei is not the top defender on the Rangers but he may very well be the best value. He’s a master of hidden points with an average of 4.5 SABS per game despite only totaling 2 points on the season. For the season he’s scored 88% of the points that Kevin Shattenkirk has scored (on DK) but costs nearly 40% less. That’s a great value for a player going up against the worst team in hockey; one that gives up the second most fantasy points to opposing defensemen.
Brandon Montour (ANH): I wrote about Montour for my first article of the year and he came through with an assist and 4 SABS. Since then he’s gone on to total 4 points and 27 SABS over his next seven games. That’s a solid level of production for a player in his price range. He’s got a juicy matchup tonight in Florida against a Panthers team that has been one of the more generous teams to opposing blue liners. His increased time on the first power play line will only enhance his chances to give you a good return on your investment.
John Klingberg (DAL): He’s one of the more expensive players on defense but is totally worth it with an average of 1 point and 5 SABS per game on the season. What I love about Klingberg is that he doesn’t get his points in clumps; he’s about as steady as it gets on the defensive end of the ice. A struggling Oilers team is a great matchup for Klingberg as he’ll need to produce well in order to meet his high price. I say that he comes though.
Between the Pipes –Goalies to target
Jonathan Quick (Los Angeles Kings @ MTL)
Las Vegas has Montreal as a favorite in this game but I think that only serves to make Quick an even better play. Few teams have been more disappointing than the Canadiens and I don’t see them improving against one of the top goalies in the league. Montreal has the second fewest goals per game in the league (1.89 goal/gm), has taken the most shots (38.2 shots/game), and has the worst shooting percentage (4.9%). As opposed to the Oilers (who I talked up as a good buying opportunity in a similar situation), I don’t see the fire power on the Canadiens roster to turn this around so quickly (see what I did there?). I expect a Kings win and for Montreal to once again struggle to score 2 goals.
Craig Anderson (Ottawa Senators vs PHI)
One of the stats I like to look for when picking a goalie is his team’s penalty killing percentage. The Senators have the best in the league at a 92% kill rate. If this game was in Philadelphia I might take a look at the Flyers but this game is in Ottawa and I’ll take the home team in this scenario. What makes me like this play even more is that the Flyers have averaged 1.33 goals per game over their last three after averaging about 4 goals per game to start the season. Playing in an unfriendly environment against a top notch goalie and penalty killing squad is not the best way to break out of a funk. Anderson should be pretty safe tonight, stopping over 30 shots on goal en route to a probable win.
John Gibson (Anaheim Ducks @ FLA)
If you take out his first two games, Gibson is giving up less than 2 goals per game over his last six outings. He’s going to have to be on his game again to give up less than two goals but the stars are aligning for him to put up a big score tonight. The Panthers are fourth in the league with 36 SOG/game, while the Ducks give up 36 SOG/game (second highest total in the league). Gibson is going to get peppered with shots, and if he can manage to make 33+ saves, he’s going to come out looking very good. I expect the Ducks to put up a decent number tonight so your win bonus is well within reach as well. When in doubt I like to ride the hot goalie and few are hotter than Gibby.
Follow me on Twitter @bankster17 (I’m always available for questions or conversation) and good luck tonight with your One Time Daily Fantasy Shot!